Would Withdrawing from the Good Friday Agreement Resurface the Northern Ireland Troubles?

The United Kingdom government has clearly stated that it would not unilaterally withdraw from the Good Friday Agreement (GFA).

The United Kingdom's Role in the Good Friday Agreement

As one of the co-guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement, the UK has a vested interest in its continued enforcement. The UK parliament passed the GFA with the 1998 Northern Ireland Act, which was overwhelmingly supported by Northern Ireland voters in a 1998 referendum.

International Implications

The GFA's importance extends beyond the UK. Both the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have signed on to the agreement, making any changes complex and potentially politically disastrous for the UK.

A notable example is the stance of the US Congress, which has indicated that there would be no trade deal if the UK attempts to alter the GFA in any way. This underscores the global significance of the agreement and the potential repercussions of any changes.

Future of the UK and Northern Ireland

According to a former British diplomat, if current Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues on his current path, the following scenarios could unfold:

Scotland could gain independence. Northern Ireland might seek to reunite with Ireland. Wales may attempt to separate from England, though it is unlikely to succeed. England might then request to rejoin the EU under severe conditions.

This forecast comes as a surprise and highlights the complex political landscape surrounding Brexit and the GFA.

Resurgence of Troubles

Among a fringe group on both sides, there remains a significant amount of hatred, often rooted in perceived injustices affecting their communities. For the most part, this hatred has not translated into large-scale conflict.

Both sides have largely disarmed, and with the collapse of the USSR, the Republican side no longer has ready access to weapons. However, there could be a notable increase in low-level sectarian crime that has been relatively consistent in Northern Ireland.

Some speculate that the real motive behind the push to address the border issue could be to provide a pretext for the resumption of hostilities. This notion is particularly plausible given the historic support for the IRA and similar groups from the Irish diaspora in New York.

The Role of Power-Sharing

Despite the importance of the GFA's power-sharing provisions, these have been effectively abandoned. This raises the question: why are border issues, which are not directly addressed in the GFA, playing such a significant role in current discussions?

Perhaps the focus on border issues is a way to bypass political obstacles and address sensitive issues in Northern Ireland without directly challenging the power-sharing framework that has been a cornerstone of the GFA.

In conclusion, while the withdrawal from the Good Friday Agreement is not in the immediate plans of the UK government, the potential for the resurgence of the Northern Ireland Troubles cannot be entirely ruled out. The international community, especially the US and the EU, play a crucial role in ensuring the stability and peace in Northern Ireland.